Sports
NFL Draft 2020: Latest 1st-Round Mocks, Odds, Best Fits for Top Prospects
Vasha Hunt/Associated PressThe 2020 NFL draft is less than a week away. Naturally, the presumed first-round picture is beginning to come into something resembling focus.The first couple of likely picks have been apparent for some time. The Cincinnati Bengals are expected to take LSU quarterback Joe Burrow first overall, while the Washington Redskins are expected…
Vasha Hunt/Associated Press
The 2020 NFL draft is less than a week away. Naturally, the presumed first-round picture is beginning to come into something resembling focus.
The first couple of likely picks have been apparent for some time. The Cincinnati Bengals are expected to take LSU quarterback Joe Burrow first overall, while the Washington Redskins are expected to grab Ohio State pass-rusher Chase Young second.
Burrow—with his quick release and short-to-mid-range accuracy—should be a fantastic fit for the Bengals and Zac Taylor's offense. Young is a fit for virtually any defensive scheme in which he's able to rush the passer.
Things are a bit murky after those two, however, largely because the quarterback market remaines unsettled. Both the Miami Dolphins and the Los Angeles Chargers—who own the fifth and sixth overall picks, respectively—need a new quarterback of the future. One of them could move up for Alabama signal-caller Tua Tagovailoa or Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert.
As of now, Miami appears to be favoring Herbert over Tagovailoa.
“No team has done more work on Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert over the past two years than the Dolphins,” Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald wrote.
From a schematic standpoint, Tagovailoa might be a better fit for Chan Gailey's West Coast-style offense. He is accurate, mobile and has a ball that jumps out of his hand upon release. On the field, the Crimson Tide star is everything the Dolphins could and should want under center.
Unsurprisingly, Miami remains the betting favorite to land Tagovailoa:
br_betting @br_betting
Where will Tua land? 🔮 https://t.co/7AWRehDf1V
Unfortunately, draft prospects aren't judged solely on what they've accomplished on the playing field. Tagovailoa suffered a dislocated and fractured hip last season, and his health is a significant concern heading into the draft.
Because of the NFL's ban on travel and predraft visits, teams have not gotten the chance to medically evaluate Tagovailoa individually.
“It is a little bit of a leap of faith,” one general manager said of drafting Tagovailoa, per NFL Media's Tom Pelissero.
Herbert isn't as polished of a player, but he doesn't carry the injury risk that Tagovailoa does. Therefore, the fact that Miami has done extensive research on the former Duck could lead them to make the “safe” choice and bypass Tua.
Herbert isn't a bad fit for Miami. His athleticism and strong arm represent what most NFL teams want in a quarterback. However, his lack of health uncertainty could be the deciding factor for the Dolphins.
Draftniks appear to be buying into this possibility too. Kevin Hanson of SI.com had Herbert going to the Dolphins in a recent mock draft. So did NFL Media's Bucky Brooks—who also had Tagovailoa falling to the No. 9 pick and the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Tagovailoa could go much higher than that—or much lower. With pro days nonexistent and much of the predraft process unfolding out of the spotlight, accurate mock drafts may not exist in 2020. This is a possibility NFL Media's Ian Rapoport recently alluded to:
Ian Rapoport @RapSheet
I had a GM tell me, “The media is wronger about mock drafts this year than you guys have ever been.” Point being, players are going to be taken in places no one expects. https://t.co/oyDHSndqkl
So while mock drafts, the odds and logic suggest that a second quarterback will go in the top five, there's absolutely no guarantee that it will happen. You can probably ink in Burrow and Young there, but every other prospect should be penciled in lightly.
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