Predicting the Biggest CBB Stars Who Won’t Get to Play in 2020 March Madness

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Anthony EdwardsJeff Roberson/Associated Press

Big Board Ranking: No. 2

We knew in the preseason that there was a distinct possibility Anthony Edwards would join Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz on the recent list of players to go No. 1 in the NBA draft despite playing for a team that doesn't receive an invitation to the NCAA tournament.

Georgia went 11-21 last season and lost five of its top eight scorers. Really, it's a testament to Edwards' potential as a centerpiece at the next level that he was able to lead this team to a .500-ish type of season.

It was abundantly clear before the end of November that Edwards had stardom in his blood. In the second half of that Maui Invitational game against Michigan State, he just decided that he was unstoppable, carrying the Bulldogs on a 35-11 run in the span of about 10 minutes. It was a random Tuesday afternoon during football season, but it seemed like everyone in the country was watching him work his magic.

He simply wasn't provided with the supporting cast necessary to consistently win games in the SEC.

Seniors Tyree Crump and Jordan Harris both took big steps backward from what they contributed last year. And while freshmen Sahvir Wheeler and Toumani Camara have had their moments, their year-to-date numbers (especially advanced stats like player efficiency rating and box plus/minus) leave much to be desired.

Edwards has done his best, averaging nearly 20 points per night with a few 30-point games along the way, but the shooting guard won't be playing in the NCAA tournament unless Georgia (15-14) makes an unfathomable run to win the SEC tourney.

Of course, we are talking about the program that pulled off the ultimate bid thievery in 2008, winning the SEC tournament after placing dead last in the East Division during the regular season. But unless lightning strikes twice, don't hold your breath.

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Cole AnthonyStreeter Lecka/Getty Images

Big Board Ranking: No. 6

It has been a disastrous season for North Carolina.

Even before losing Cole Anthony for six weeks to a knee injury, the Tar Heels were showing signs of falling apart at the seams. Graduate transfers Christian Keeling and Justin Pierce were just OK. Anthony's fellow freshmen, Jeremiah Francis and Anthony Harris, didn't even see action until the ninth game of the season. The offense wasn't clicking.

It was a house of cards, and Anthony's injury was a huge gust of wind.

They have been more competitive since his return to action on Feb. 1, but they are still losing far more often than not. And at this point, the Heels (12-17) are just about locked in for the program's second-worst winning percentage in more than a century.

That means no Anthony in the NCAA tournament, and frankly, that might be a good thing.

It's not his fault that the point guard is the only guy on the team who can create offense, but it has been hard to watch him shooting around 38 percent from the field while racking up nearly as many turnovers as assists. Put him on a team with other guys who can actually shoot and that's probably a much different story.

For instance, Collin Sexton didn't have much support on offense during his one season at Alabama, but at least John Petty was a lethal three-point shooter and Donta Hall converted on 72.6 percent of his two-point attempts. If Anthony had the extra space to operate that comes along with those secondary scorers, he would likely be doing even more incredible things.

The less we have to watch him try to carry this broken offense by himself, the better.

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Tyrese HaliburtonCharlie Neibergall/Associated Press

Big Board Ranking: No. 11

This one isn't a prediction; it's a guarantee. Thanks to a broken wrist suffered Feb. 8, there will be no Tyrese Haliburton in the NCAA tournament.

Even if he had stayed healthy, though, the Cyclones (12-17) weren't going dancing. They were already four games below .500 when the injury happened, and a lot of their recent losses had gotten out of hand. In the 10 games prior to the broken wrist, Iowa State had twice lost to Baylor by double digits, lost by 15 at West Virginia, by 20 at Texas Tech and by 26 at home against Kansas.

Even with an elite point guard, they were a mess.

Losing four of last year's five leading scorers is clearly to blame. Plus, the one returnee from that group (Michael Jacobson) got significantly worse, averaging 7.3 points per game on 43.0 percent shooting compared to 11.1 and 57.6, respectively, in 2018-19. And it's not like Iowa State has ever been a popular destination for highly coveted recruits, which makes a total rebuild in one offseason next to impossible.

In spite of the team's struggles, Haliburton was fantastic, averaging 15.2 points, 6.5 assists, 5.9 rebounds and 2.5 steals per game. The only other major-conference players in the past 28 years to put up at least 15.0, 6.0, 5.0 and 2.0, respectively, were Kris Dunn and Jason Kidd.

Perhaps the clearest example of Haliburton's impact was how woefully the team performed when it first needed to adjust to life without him. He missed the Dec. 31 home game against Florida A&M—a team not ranked in the top 300 on NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) or KenPom.com—and the Cyclones lost. And in the first game after his injury, they were pummeled 90-61 by Oklahoma.

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Aaron NesmithMark Humphrey/Associated Press

Big Board Ranking: No. 16

Aaron Nesmith hasn't played since early January because of a right foot injury and is not expected to be available even if Vanderbilt makes a miraculous SEC tournament run to steal an automatic bid.

Given how terrible the Commodores have been without him, though, there's no good reason to theorize about that scenario.

When the small forward suffered the injury, he was averaging 23.0 points per game, shooting 52.2 percent from three-point range (on 8.2 attempts per game) and providing solid defense for a Vanderbilt team that was…OK. The ‘Dores were 8-6, all six losses were against KenPom top-100 opponents and they were each decided either in overtime or by single digits. In Nesmith's final game, they almost won at Auburn, which was still undefeated at the time.

But playing without their star has been a nightmare. Vandy is 1-14 since, losing by more than 14 points per game and shooting below 27 percent from three-point range as a team.

No surprise there, though. Vanderbilt, which went 21-43 over the previous two seasons and lost several key contributors after each of those seasons, now had to abruptly try to figure out how to play without a potential lottery pick. This wasn't exactly the Golden State Warriors losing Steph Curry in the middle of the season; it'd be more like if 2008 Davidson's Elite Eight team had lost Curry in the middle of the season.

It would've been fun to watch him try to shoot Vanderbilt to the Sweet 16, though. There are only five players in the nation averaging at least 3.5 triples with a percentage greater than 35. One of those four is the country's leading scorer, Markus Howard, and there's no question that Nesmith was more lethal from the perimeter than Marquette's star.

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Isaiah Stewart (33) and Jaden McDaniels (0)Abbie Parr/Getty Images

Jaden McDaniels' Big Board Ranking: No. 21

Isaiah Stewart's Big Board Ranking: No. 28

Through the first 25 games of the regular season, the only team to beat Baylor was Washington. And yet the 13-16 Huskies have no NCAA tournament hope whatsoever.

In their defense, they were banking on Kentucky transfer Quade Green being their leader, and they lost the redshirt sophomore point guard to academic ineligibility after 15 games. Their point guard situation has been an outright disaster since then, squandering an 11-4 start. If Duke had lost Tre Jones in early January, the freshman-heavy Blue Devils might have endured a similar losing skid.

All the same, it's a major bummer that the NCAA tournament will be played without the only team that signed two of the top 10 players in this year's recruiting class, per 247Sports.

It's especially painful because both Isaiah Stewart and Jaden McDaniels have played well and are expected to be first-round picks in a few months.

McDaniels, a forward, certainly hasn't been the most efficient player in the country, shooting 40 percent from the field and averaging more than three turnovers per game. But that didn't scare the NBA away from Jaylen Brown a few years ago. The talent is there—just not the consistency.

Stewart, on the other hand, is like a metronome.

The center will occasionally pop off for 25 points and 19 rebounds like he did in the overtime loss to Oregon, but you can pencil him in for a solid 13 and seven with good interior defense on most nights. And he's starting to expand his game a little bit, making four three-pointers in the past six weeks after none in the first 18 games. Draft scouts are probably upset that they won't get to see more of that in the last two weeks of March.

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Precious AchiuwaJessica Hill/Associated Press

Big Board Ranking: No. 25

While we're including the injured Tyrese Haliburton and Aaron Nesmith, an executive decision was made to not put Memphis' James Wiseman on this list since he only played three games before bailing on his team.

Precious Achiuwa definitely makes the cut, though, as he has been the main guy trying to carry Memphis since Wiseman's departure.



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The big man is leading the Tigers in points, rebounds and blocks, each by a wide margin. He doesn't even average 30 minutes per game, but he has recorded 16 double-doubles—most recently an outrageous 22 points, 22 rebounds and five blocks in an overtime win against Tulane.

Unfortunately, it's not going to be enough. After starting the season 12-1, Memphis has played .500 basketball over its past 16 games, scuffling in the American Athletic Conference that may only send one team to the Big Dance.

Achiuwa has done his best to shoulder the load. In the four losses to Georgia, Wichita State, Connecticut and Cincinnati, the power forward averaged 20.0 points and 14.3 rebounds. But on a team that has not figured out how to get good point guard play—particularly frustrating with a head coach (Penny Hardaway) who was a collegiate legend at the position—the 20-9 Tigers have been unable to put his Herculean efforts to good use.

Most of the players on this list seem like a lock to leave for the NBA, but might we get another chance to see Achiuwa in the 2021 NCAA tournament? Most mock drafts have him going in the back half of the first round, but if he spends the summer working on improving his shooting stroke (58 percent from free-throw line, 31 percent from three-point range), he could be a top-five pick next year.

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Kira Lewis Jr.Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

Big Board Ranking: No. 26

Alabama is one of the fastest-paced, highest-scoring teams in the country, and point guard Kira Lewis Jr. is at the epicenter of that calamitous style.

The sophomore is averaging 18 points, five assists, five rebounds and two steals per game. He had a triple-double a few weeks ago in an overtime loss at Auburn, and that was four days after scoring a career-high 37 points in an overtime win over Georgia.

Despite the frenetic pace that would wear out most mortals, Lewis rarely leaves the court. He has played at least 33 minutes in every game this season, scoring in double figures in each of his last 20 games.

But Alabama's at-large pulse is quickly fading.

The Crimson Tide (16-13) have lost six of their past 10 games, including a reprehensible home loss to Texas A&M. Combine that result with the season-opening loss to Penn and compare it against just one Quadrant 1 win (against Auburn) and you've got a resume that is unlikely to find much favor with the selection committee.

A win over the likes of Auburn, Florida or LSU in the quarterfinals of the SEC tournament could be huge, though. Given how low the bar is for an at-large bid this season, that might do the trick.

And if Alabama does sneak in, get ready to be entertained. This team jacks up more than 31 three-point attempts per game, including a recent three-game stretch (Feb. 12-19) in which it averaged 46 and made 17.

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Daniel OturuMichael Hickey/Getty Images

Big Board Ranking: No. 34

Daniel Oturu is a borderline first-round prospect, but he has been exceptional in the paint for Minnesota.

Much like Precious Achiuwa at Memphis, no other Golden Gopher is even within shouting distance of Oturu in points, rebounds or blocks. The center is averaging 20.2, 11.4 and 2.6, respectively, and showing no signs of wear and tear while enduring the Big Ten gauntlet.

In his three most recent games, Oturu went for 22 and 12 in a win over Northwestern, followed by 28 and 11 in a heartbreaking loss to Maryland, and 26 and 12 in a loss at Wisconsin.

Oturu also shot 5-of-8 from three-point range between the first two of those three contests, which has been an intriguing addition to his arsenal this year. The sophomore only made one triple in his entire freshman season, but the deep ball has become a legitimate problem that opponents need to worry about defending.

And yet, he might not even play in the NIT—let alone the NCAA tournament—as Minnesota's quest for a .500 season may come down to a photo finish.

The predictive metrics still love these Golden Gophers (13-15). Both KenPom and the NET have them comfortably ranked in the top 50. But they just cannot win games with any regularity. Their last two-game winning streak was more than six weeks ago, and they have lost three consecutive home games and are in the process of dropping out of the at-large conversation altogether.

At this point, Minnesota is probably going to be the No. 12 seed in the Big Ten tournament, and it probably needs to at least reach the semifinals in order to have a real case again. That means an opening-round win over Nebraska or Northwestern, followed by two more neutral-site wins over the likes of Illinois and Penn State. Suffice it to say, we're not optimistic about that happening.

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