Sports
NFL Predictions Week 12: Vegas Odds, Spreads and Picks for All Games
Rob Carr/Getty ImagesThe AFC South title race steals the spotlight at the start of Week 12. Indianapolis eked ahead of Houston after Week 11 with a win over Jacksonville, while the Texans fell to Baltimore. Since the two franchises could have similar records in December, Thursday’s meeting at NRG Stadium may go a long way in determining…
Rob Carr/Getty Images
The AFC South title race steals the spotlight at the start of Week 12.
Indianapolis eked ahead of Houston after Week 11 with a win over Jacksonville, while the Texans fell to Baltimore.
Since the two franchises could have similar records in December, Thursday's meeting at NRG Stadium may go a long way in determining which side receives a home game in the wild-card round.
Both teams sit three games back of New England, who has a chance to become the first NFL team to reach 10 wins if it earns a second consecutive victory over an NFC East side.
Week 12 Schedule
All Times ET.
Odds via Caesars; predictions against the spread in bold.
Thursday, November 21
Indianapolis at Houston (-3.5) (8:20 p.m., Fox/NFL Network)
Sunday, November 24
Denver at Buffalo (-4) (1 p.m., CBS)
Pittsburgh (-6.5) at Cincinnati (1 p.m., CBS)
Carolina at New Orleans (-9.5) (1 p.m., CBS)
Oakland (-3) at New York Jets (1 p.m., CBS)
Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-4.5) (1 p.m., Fox)
New York Giants at Chicago (-6) (1 p.m., Fox)
Miami at Cleveland (-10.5) (1 p.m., Fox)
Seattle at Philadelphia (-1.5) (1 p.m., Fox)
Detroit (-3.5) at Washington (1 p.m., Fox)
Jacksonville at Tennessee (-3) (4:05 p.m., CBS)
Dallas at New England (-6.5) (4:25 p.m., Fox)
Green Bay at San Francisco (-3) (8:20 p.m., NBC)
Monday, November 25
Baltimore (-3) at Los Angeles Rams (8:15 p.m., ESPN)
Picks
Indianapolis at Houston (-3.5)
Gail Burton/Associated Press
The last three regular-season meetings between the Colts and Texans have been decided by one possession.
In Week 7, the Colts captured a seven-point victory that currently serves as a head-to-head tiebreaker.
Frank Reich's squad has outscored AFC South foes 82-53 in 2019, but Houston has not suffered back-to-back losses.
All three of Houston's wins after losses have occurred at home, with the last one coming in Week 8 against Oakland.
Bill O'Brien's team is also 3-1 in home games and Deshaun Watson has 1,024 passing yards and eight touchdowns in those contests.
Conversely, Jacoby Brissett has not reached the 200-yard mark in his four road performances.
The quarterback's lackluster outings on his travels combined with Houston's rushing defense could force the visitors into offensive struggles.
Before their Week 10 loss to Baltimore, the Texans held seven consecutive opponents under 100 rushing yards.
Since Brissett does not pose the same ground threat as Lamar Jackson, the Texans have a good chance of going back to their rushing defense average.
Additionally, Marlon Mack is out indefinitely with a fractured hand, per ESPN's Adam Schefter.
Even though Jonathan Williams racked up 116 rushing yards in place of Mack, the Colts have one fewer ground threat at their disposal.
If Whitney Mercilus, Benardrick McKinney and others clog up the rushing lanes, the Texans might hold the Colts under 20 points.
If that occurs, Watson could take advantage of a Colts secondary that has allowed over 300 passing yards on five occasions, including Week 7's meeting at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Dallas at New England (-6.5)
Matt Rourke/Associated Press
New England owns an average home margin of victory of 20.3 points.
That is a positive sign for the Patriots in their first game at Gillette Stadium since October 27.
In the last two contests, Bill Belichick‘s team has been blown out by Baltimore and struggled to score in a win over Philadelphia.
Three of Tom Brady‘s four 300-yard performances have come on home soil, and he is in search of his first since Week 6.
He could experience a reverse in form against a Cowboys defense that allowed over 300 yards in the last two games.
Against Minnesota and Detroit, Jason Garrett's team allowed 55 points, and four of its last six opponents have reached the 20-point mark.
The difference between Sunday and previous games is Dallas' scoring output could be quashed by New England's rushing defense.
The Patriots held six of its 10 opponents under 100 rushing yards and two of the Cowboys' sub-100-yard outings have come on the road.
Without an effective Ezekiel Elliott, Dak Prescott may struggle to beat the top AFC team on his own.
In three of Dallas' four losses, Elliott has been held under 50 rushing yards, and in those clashes, Prescott only has three touchdown passes.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.
Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference.
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