Sports
NFL Draft 2020 Prospects: Projections for Biggest Boom-or-Bust Players
Grant Halverson/Getty ImagesWhen it comes to the NFL draft, there’s no such thing as a can’t-miss prospect.While it’s likely that Joe Burrow is on the precipice of a successful career in the NFL, it’s not guaranteed. Even the most productive college players and athletic marvels have failed to pan out. Conversely, some of the NFL’s…
Grant Halverson/Getty Images
When it comes to the NFL draft, there's no such thing as a can't-miss prospect.
While it's likely that Joe Burrow is on the precipice of a successful career in the NFL, it's not guaranteed. Even the most productive college players and athletic marvels have failed to pan out. Conversely, some of the NFL's biggest stars didn't look like much as prospects.
The truth is that when a team takes a player, they are taking a range of outcomes. When evaluating a prospect, teams are likely to be drawn to their ceiling. But they also need to consider what that player will look like if they don't hit that upside.
Some players in the 2020 class are more boom-or-bust than others. When looking at some of those expected to go in the first round, their range of outcomes are wider than those of their peers.
Here's a look at some of the top prospects who have a wide range of outcomes with some comparisons to give an idea of what those outcomes might look like.
Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama
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Henry Ruggs III has been one of the biggest winners of predraft season. His combine performance established himself as the fastest wide receiver and put him in the conversation to be the first receiver taken in the draft.
That's ahead of his teammate Jerry Jeudy, who had 37 more catches, 417 more yards and three more touchdowns. While production isn't everything, that's an apples-to-apples comparison with his teammate.
The NFL loves speed, and rightfully so; Super Bowl LIV participants the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers were among the fastest offenses in the league. Ruggs has plenty of that to burn, but whether he can become much more productive than he was in college is a legitimate question.
Ceiling: Steve Smith
Tyreek Hill is thrown around a lot as a comparison for Ruggs. He's a slight receiver with speed to burn and the ability to turn screens into long touchdowns, as well as the ability to beat a defense deep. Steve Smith is a good comparison as well, though.
Smith put up similar numbers to Ruggs in college but developed into a go-to receiver and two-time All-Pro. That's how good Ruggs can be if he proves he can get separation and carry the load of being a No. 1 receiver.
Floor: Marquise Goodwin
Marquise Goodwin ran a jaw-dropping 4.27-second 40-yard dash at the combine in 2013 before being taken in the third round. Goodwin wasn't as productive as Ruggs during his time at Texas but did demonstrate the top speed that makes Ruggs interesting.
He never made the transition to being a full-time No. 1 receiver, though. He has one season of more than 900 yards in his career but has been a useful secondary target.
In comparing Ruggs to Goodwin as a prospect, 49ers beat writer Matt Barrows of The Athletic said the difference between the Alabama product and Goodwin is that the younger receiver is more rugged. That will need to be true for him to be more Smith than Goodwin.
Jordan Love, QB, Utah State
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Predictions for where Jordan Love will wind up on draft night are as unpredictable as his potential. ESPN's Todd McShay has him going to the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 6. Daniel Jeremiah of NFL Network has the Green Bay Packers taking the quarterback at No. 30 overall.
Look at mock drafts across the internet, and you will see him slotted everywhere between. At 6'4″ and 224 pounds, he has the frame to be a quarterback at the next level. And his ability to make difficult throws from multiple angles is enticing.
The problem is that there are questions about the level of competition he played against at Utah State, and his final season with the Aggies saw a big drop in production. After throwing 32 touchdowns to six interceptions in his second season, he only threw 20 touchdowns while throwing 17 interceptions.
Ceiling: Brett Favre
This isn't saying Love will be Brett Favre. This is the ceiling. Before Favre was a 11-time Pro Bowler and a Super Bowl champion, he was a quarterback at Southern Miss with a big arm and a gunslinger mentality. He threw 52 touchdowns and 34 interceptions in four seasons in Hattiesburg.
He never did ditch the gunslinger mentality. Favre always threw more interceptions than teams would like. But his ability to make plays made him one of the league's most exciting passers.
When Love is at his best, that's the kind of player he can be. If it turns out that his struggles at Utah State were more about his surrounding cast and Love trying to do too much, he can be an explosive player.
Floor: Paxton Lynch/Johnny Manziel
There isn't quite a great parallel to represent the floor for Love. As a small-school prospect facing questions about his level of competition, Paxton Lynch springs to mind. Coming out of Memphis, it wasn't clear whether he would deal with the much smaller throwing windows in the NFL.
He couldn't make the transition, and the Denver Broncos found that out the hard way. However, Lynch was at least a good decision-maker in college.
Johnny Manziel, on the other hand, was used to having his gambles pay off in college. Once he got to the league, his inability to be decisive and read defenses cost him. He was out of the NFL after two years.
K'Lavon Chaisson, Edge, LSU
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Edge-rusher is one of those positions that seem to be deemed as a safe pick most of the time but doesn't have the hit rate you would think.
This year's crop of pass-rushers isn't deep. Chase Young is the prize of the group, and after that there's uncertainty. Chaisson appears to be the next defensive end in line, but that may be because of the general lack of talent at the position.
A.J. Epenesa had early hype, but poor combine testing has sunk his stock. So Chaisson seems to have taken the de facto No. 2 spot because of his quick first step, ability to bend and play in space within LSU's defensive system.
However, he's a boom-or-bust product because there simply isn't much to go off when evaluating him. He was only featured in the LSU defense for one season and had just 6.5 sacks that year. Production is only a piece of the puzzle in evaluating defensive ends, but it's still a cause for concern.
Ceiling: DeMarcus Ware/Chandler Jones
This is another two-part comparison. The first is a play-style comparison that comes from Gil Brandt of NFL Media, who compared Chaisson to Ware because of their ability to use a quick first step to get to the quarterback.
He describes Chaisson as a “basketball player-esque pass-rusher who can bend, turn the corner and get after the quarterback because of his athleticism.” While giving the comparison to Ware who racked up 138.5 career sacks.
The Chandler Jones comparison comes into play when talking about career arc. Jones was a first-round selection of the Arizona Cardinals out of Syracuse thanks to his skill set and athleticism, but he wasn't the most productive pass-rusher.
He had just 10 sacks combined in three years with the Orange but is tied for the second-most among all first-round picks in the past decade.
Floor: Kony Ealy
If you've already forgotten about Kony Ealy, it would be understandable. The Missouri pass-rusher only had 14 sacks in three years with the Carolina Panthers after they made him a second-round choice.
Here's an excerpt from his NFL.com scouting report:
“Quick off the snap. Loose athlete — moves like a linebacker. Plays on his feet. Runs the arc — dips his shoulder, bends the corner and gets home… Big, athletic, ascending, pass-rush talent with the size, burst and flexibility to pressurize the edge as a right defensive end. Is not a finished product, particularly as a run defender, but should only become more disruptive as his strength, technique and savvy catch up with his natural physical ability.“
That sounds a lot like what's being said about Chaisson. Ealy was a three-year starter at Missouri and had nine sacks in his final season with the Tigers, so he was even more productive than Chaisson was at LSU.
Again, there's more to scouting than production, but there's nothing to guarantee Chaisson never hits that high ceiling. His stat line could look like it did at LSU, which would be a disappointment for a first-round pick.
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