Sports
MLB Playoffs 2019: Updated World Series Odds After Final LCS
Matt Slocum/Associated PressThe Houston Astros are headed back to the World Series for the second time in three years after defeating the New York Yankees 6-4 in Game 6 of the American League Championship Series on Saturday in Minute Maid Park.Houston, which beat the Yankees in the 2017 ALCS before taking home the World Series…
Matt Slocum/Associated Press
The Houston Astros are headed back to the World Series for the second time in three years after defeating the New York Yankees 6-4 in Game 6 of the American League Championship Series on Saturday in Minute Maid Park.
Houston, which beat the Yankees in the 2017 ALCS before taking home the World Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, will now meet the Washington Nationals to decide this year's MLB champion.
Here's a look at a prediction for the projected World Series matchup. We'll also review some odds in advance of those contests.
Updated World Series Odds
Houston Astros: -220 ($220 bet would win $100)
Washington Nationals: 180 ($100 bet would win $180)
Source: SuperBook USA (h/t B/R Betting)
World Series Prediction
Three factors will determine the World Series, each in favor of the Astros.
First, Houston has homefield advantage, an important fact given that Houston is now 65-21 at Minute Maid Park this season (including playoffs).
Astros fans have lit up the stadium all postseason, bringing up memories of when Houston sports fans created an otherwordly atmosphere as Houston Oilers games during the “Luv Ya Blue” era of the late 1970s and early 1980s.
Simply put, Minute Maid Park is now a house of horrors, and one where the Astros are literally perfect if they get a three-run lead per MLB Stats:
ESPN Stats & Info @ESPNStatsInfo
Entering today, the Astros are 88-2 (.978) this season when leading by 3 or more runs, the best mark in MLB (regular season and playoffs).
That includes a perfect 50-0 mark at home. https://t.co/wztko2qq12
Second, the Astros have a much deeper bullpen.
The Nationals' dead-last bullpen ERA this regular season is a bit deceiving, as manager Dave Martinez shortened the pen during the playoffs. Sean Doolittle and Daniel Hudson have carried the flag for much of the playoffs with some starters sprinkled in.
They've mostly done a stellar job holding down the fort against the Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals in the NL postseason, but the staff's depth doesn't compare to the Astros, who just won a bullpen game over the Yankees and their excellent crew of relievers.
Six pitchers combined to allow just two runs over eight innings on Saturday before closer Roberto Osuna allowed a game-tying two-run homer to DJ LeMahieu.
Still, the bullpen did just enough for the Astros to come through in the bottom of the ninth thanks to Jose Altuve‘s two-run blast.
The ‘pen has been a positive trait for the Astros all year, as they finished third in reliever ERA in the league. If Houston is forced to go to its relievers early (or even decides on another bullpen game in this series), then the Astros might be just fine.
Third, the Astros have Altuve.
The future Hall of Famer had offseason surgery on his right knee, and he encountered issues in rehab this season after experiencing soreness in his right leg, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. Altuve missed 38 games and also started the season slow, hitting just .256 on July 12.
But the second baseman went on an absolute tear in the season's second half, and that's continued into the playoffs.
Altuve had 20 homers, 48 RBI, a .332 batting average and a 1.008 OPS in his final 67 games, per Baseball-Reference. The Astros went 48-19 during that span, which helped the team secure homefield advantage throughout the World Series with a 107-55 record.
In the postseason, Altuve has hit .349 with five home runs and nine RBI, capped by his game-ending two-run shot to send the Astros into the World Series.
The second baseman is going to be a serious problem for any Nationals pitcher to get out, even the trio of aces in Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg. He's arguably the game's best player not named Mike Trout, and that should help propel the Astros to a second World Series title in three years.
Look for Houston to hold serve at home for two, steal one in Washington and then win Game 6 in Houston.
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