Sports
NFL Teams That Should Blow It Up This Offseason
0 of 5Charlie Neibergall/Associated PressThe Miami Dolphins wrote the blueprint for blowing up a team and starting over. Miami brought in a new head coach to steer the ship (Brian Flores), traded away high-end players for future-minded assets (Minkah Fitzpatrick, Laremy Tunsil) and stacked bountiful cap space atop those assets. A handful of teams should follow the same…
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Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press
The Miami Dolphins wrote the blueprint for blowing up a team and starting over.
Miami brought in a new head coach to steer the ship (Brian Flores), traded away high-end players for future-minded assets (Minkah Fitzpatrick, Laremy Tunsil) and stacked bountiful cap space atop those assets.
A handful of teams should follow the same blueprint.
Teams littered with bad contracts crippling cap space, limited overhead for contention and little in the way of future-minded assets are candidates to do the same. This can be a team merely struggling to find a starting quarterback or a team ready to begin a new era despite an established name under center.
Here are five teams who qualify as blow-it-up contenders this offseason.
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Stephen B. Morton/Associated Press
The Dolphins aren't the only team in the state of Florida needing an overhaul.
The Jacksonville Jaguars had an anomaly of a trip to the AFC title game in 2017 (that was the only winning season for the franchise since 2007) and have since started to blow it up.
Gone from that 2017 team? Jalen Ramsey, Dante Fowler, Marcell Dareus, Barry Church, Malik Jackson, Aaron Colvin, Tashaun Gipson and the recently traded A.J. Bouye.
Why stop there? The Jaguars only have about $34 million in cap space. But they also have a $22.2 million cap hit in Nick Foles, and Calais Campbell, at the age of 33, is a $17.5 million hit. Yannick Ngakoue is about to make massive money on the open market and already tweeted he doesn't want to return.
A top-10 draft pick this year isn't going to help turn around this shuttered contention window, especially based on recent so-so picks like Taven Bryan and Leonard Fournette. There's a big talent exodus, and the front office has decided to retain Doug Marrone at head coach anyway.
The best move is a long-term rebuild around second-year quarterback Gardner Minshew, so trading off all assets of value that don't fit that plan (Foles, Campbell) in exchange for picks is the move.
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Michael Conroy/Associated Press
The good news: The Carolina Panthers already appear to be doing this.
The bad news: They have a long, long way to go.
Carolina punched the reset button this offseason by swapping out Ron Rivera for Matt Rhule. And while the new head coach has hinted he wants to coach Cam Newton, the former MVP is one of the offseason's biggest uncertainties.
Newton, who turns 31 in May, just hasn't been able to stay healthy and carries a $21.1 million cap hit next year for a team that only has $24.7 million in space. The front office just acquired an expensive older tackle in Russell Okung via trade while giving away a few years of Trai Turner, signaling the focus is on the long term.
Why stop there? Newton's contract is sizable enough, and Kawann Short, a 31-year-old defensive lineman, has nearly the same cap hit in 2020 and 2021. With serious questions around the offensive line and superstar running back Christian McCaffrey really the only surefire offensive piece right now, it would make some sense to also offer up veterans like safety Eric Reid in exchange for long-term assets.
Maybe the Panthers don't trade Newton and use him as a bridge. But his prior performance says he should have a big trade market. With the contention window shut and Rhule on a seven-year deal, the time to host a fire sale and start over is now.
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Jason Behnken/Associated Press
The Atlanta Falcons seem stuck in purgatory.
Despite a quarterback capable of playing at an elite level, the Falcons have gone .500 or worse in five of their last seven seasons. The trip to the Super Bowl in 2016 on the back of an MVP effort from Matt Ryan not only had a humiliating result, but it was also an anomaly and has been all downhill since, topped off by consecutive 7-9 showings.
The Falcons still aren't throwing in the towel on head coach Dan Quinn but don't have much in the way of wiggle room to boost Ryan's supporting cast. The team is stuck in the middle of the draft order with the 16th pick this year and has about $4.5 million in cap space to work with right now.
There are four players who each eat up 7 percent or more of the team's cap total, with Ryan and Julio Jones sitting on cap hits north of $20 million. Ryan will be 35 in May and just threw 14 picks in 15 appearances (highest since 2015), and Jones' arguably league-best play isn't moving the needle.
This isn't advocating for moving on from either Ryan or Jones necessarily. But with middling money and draft positioning, all-in runs over the next few years don't seem feasible. Moves along the lines of the Mohamed Sanu trade (aging veteran for a second-round pick) make sense. Cornerback Desmond Trufant has a cap hit north of $15 million and has regressed, while Devonta Freeman averaged just 3.6 yards per carry last year and has a $9.5 million cap hit.
With little in the way of younger talent compared to an aging, wildly expensive core, the Falcons might be better off already planning for the future by selling off veterans and acquiring picks.
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Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press
The Detroit Lions have gone in an odd direction over the last few years.
Former head coach Jim Caldwell was shown the door despite racking up back-to-back nine-win seasons in 2016 and 2017, yet Matt Patricia just regressed from six wins to three over the last two seasons. Don't forget other head-scratching moves like trading defensive back Quandre Diggs to an NFC contender for a Day 3 pick.
Actually sticking to a direction could be a way to fix things over the long term. The obvious point of contention is Matthew Stafford, who carries a $21.3 million cap hit in 2020 and could only get in eight games last year. He's been the subject of trade speculation, and while this isn't saying the Lions should give up on him, it might be time to think about the future considering he's 32 and has an out in his contract after this year.
The Lions already hold the third overall pick and have about $46.8 million in cap space, so moving on from worthwhile short-term players in the name of stacking the asset pile higher could be a long-term winning decision.
Cornerback Darius Slay has the team's third-highest cap hit (north of $13 million), and the Lions are shopping him, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. And then there are players like Marvin Jones and Devon Kennard, who account for a combined $16 million against the cap and could fetch a nice return.
For those keeping count, the Lions have had four winning seasons since 2000. While it's easy to say in hindsight, perhaps the blowup should've come earlier. General manager Bob Quinn took over in 2016 after spending the previous 15 years with New England. But it's clear the team needs a complete rebuild, as the “Patriots Way” and Matt Patricia's defensive acumen just isn't working.
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Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press
The Los Angeles Chargers should really lean into the rebuild.
Those Chargers already noted longtime quarterback Philip Rivers won't be back in 2020. That means, barring an unexpected move, it's Tyrod Taylor or a rookie drafted sixth overall starting under center next year.
Might as well fully embrace it.
The Chargers have about $55.9 million in cap space but must decide what to do with big-money free agents like running back Melvin Gordon and tight end Hunter Henry. Paying up for either wouldn't make a ton of sense, as everything about the team's offensive success revolved around the quality of the quarterback. Unless Tom Brady happens to walk through the door, it's hard to argue a serious avenue to contention is available.
Many of the Chargers' key pieces are at or above the dreaded age of 30 now, including Melvin Ingram, Casey Hayward, Mike Pouncey and Thomas Davis. Each of them also accounts for at least 3 percent of the team's cap individually.
Unless the Chargers somehow think they're putting up a fight against Kansas City in the AFC West while downgrading at the most important position of all, the better move is to grab more in the way of assets while potentially thinking about the long-term outlook around a rookie passer.
Unless otherwise noted, contract and cap figures courtesy of Spotrac
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