NFL Picks Week 12: Expert Predictions, Odds Guide and Over-Under Lines

Jason Behnken/Associated Press

According to PickWatch, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Buffalo, Detroit and Cleveland are the top Week 12 favorites, as they have garnered 95 percent or higher of expert predictions. 

The Steelers and Saints are receiving 100 percent of the picks in their favor due to their favorable matchups. 

Mike Tomlin‘s side is facing 0-10 Cincinnati, a team it beat 27-3 at Heinz Field in Week 4. 

New Orleans welcomes a struggling Carolina squad to the Superdome. Its defense could feast on an offense that produced three points and turned the ball over four times through Kyle Allen. 

Buffalo is only a four-point favorite at home versus Denver, but it has 96 percent of experts backing it. 

The Bills are 3-0 against sub-.500 teams at New Era Field. They have defeated Cincinnati, Miami and Washington by a combined 76-47. 

The Broncos' three-quarter performance in Week 11 at Minnesota may hand some projectors hope that an upset will occur, but the emotional hangover from a fourth-quarter collapse could lead some to the opposite thought process. 

Even with Jeff Driskel at quarterback and a defense that allowed over 350 yards in five of the last six games, the Lions are an overwhelming favorite to beat the Redskins. 

Washington's offense comes into the matchup without 250 total yards in a single game since Week 6. 

Miami could be competitive against Cleveland, as its offense put up 62 points in the last three weeks and it won on the road in Indianapolis in Week 10. 

The Browns are 2-3 at home and scored 40 points in their last two victories. If Miami's defense halts Cleveland's production, it could produce the biggest upset of Week 12. 

The hardest game to pick is Seattle at Philadelphia. Currently, 57 percent of experts have taken the Seahawks, but 43 percent have backed the Eagles. 

Seattle enters off the bye and with six wins in its last seven games. Additionally, Pete Carroll's team could take over first in the NFC West if it wins and San Francisco falls to Green Bay. 

Carson Wentz has fewer than 200 passing yards in three of his last four games and he is stuck with a banged-up wide receiver group prone to drops. 

Based off their recent performances, Seattle seems like the safer pick, despite being on the road. 

Best Bets

Detroit at Washington (Over 41.5) 

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

Detroit's defense may not give up 509 total yards, like it did to Dallas in Week 11, but it likely will not go through a complete transformation for Week 12. 

In their last six games, the Lions have allowed 293.7 passing yards and 123.9 rushing yards per game. 

Dwayne Haskins and Derrius Guice could profit off the Lions' struggles on a few drives as they continue to gain chemistry in the Washington offense. 

In the fourth quarter of Week 11, Guice found the end zone on a 45-yard pass from Haskins and the rookie from Ohio State threw for another score. 

Although the points were earned in garbage time, they still handed the young offense a dose of momentum going into a second straight home contest. 

If Haskins and Guice combine on a scoring drive or two, the over is more likely to hit with the Lions taking advantage of Washington's defense. 

The Redskins conceded at least 250 total yards to five opponents at home and have allowed four foes to score over 30 points. 

San Francisco was the only squad not to reach the 30-point mark at FedEx Field, but that was due to poor conditions in Week 7.

Driskel displayed promise by throwing for 209 yards and a pair of scores in Week 11, and with two solid targets in Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr., he could achieve more success.

The development of a rushing attack through Bo Scarbrough adds more promise to the over hitting. 

The running back out of Alabama recorded 55 yards on 14 carries versus Dallas and he is facing a Washington defense that allowed over 100 rushing yards in the last four games.

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Miami ( 10.5) at Cleveland 

Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

Picking Miami to win outright may seem foolish, but there is a decent chance it covers at Cleveland. 

The Browns have a losing record at FirstEnergy Stadium and will be without two key pieces of their defense with Myles Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi suspended. 

Garrett and Ogunjobi combined for 15 sacks, 18 tackles for loss and 27 quarterback hits.

The Dolphins offense showed flashes of promise over the last month, which has led to at least 14 points in each of the last six games. 

If Ryan Fitzpatrick has more time to throw with Garrett and Ogunjobi out, he could work the ball down the field to DeVante Parker and others, as long as he avoids turnovers. 

Part of the reason Cleveland limited the Steelers to seven points in Week 11 was the four turnovers it created. 

In the last three weeks, Fitzpatrick has three touchdowns and an interception, and in those games, Miami produced 62 points despite earning 143 rushing yards.

Conversely, the Browns have failed to consistently score over 20 points, and it needed a late end zone trip in Week 11 to eclipse that total for the first time since Week 6. 

If Baker Mayfield and Co. continue to settle for field goals, or can't produce scores on consecutive drives, Miami could stay within single digits. 

Three of Cleveland's five home games have been decided by one possession, with the exceptions being a 30-point loss to Tennessee in Week 1 and a 14-point win earned by a touchdown with five minutes left last Thursday. 

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference. 

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