2020 Daily Trail Markers: What to know about Tuesday’s primaries in 6 states

A week after Super Tuesday, the Democratic field has winnowed to two main candidates, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden, who will be fighting for delegates in six states on Tuesday. The most closely-watched of these upcoming six states is Michigan. With 125 delegates, it offers the biggest prize of the night. In 2016, Sanders scored a major surprise upset against Hillary Clinton, by winning the majority of white voters, though Clinton won handily among black voters and women. It is unclear whether Sanders can replicate that victory this time around against Biden. Like Clinton, Biden has so far proven he has significant support among African Americans, and he is also more popular among working-class white voters than Clinton was. 

A new poll from Monmouth University released on Monday showed Biden with a commanding lead over Sanders. Fifty-one percent of likely Democratic primary voters said they planned to support Biden compared to 36% for Sanders. Biden led Sanders among white voters (50% to 36%), voters of other races, (53% to 36%), voters age 50 and over (62% to 24%) and women (53% to 33%). Sanders led Biden among voters under 50 years old (49% to 38%) and men (49% to 39%). As of last week, according to a Detroit News/WDIV poll, absentee voters who had cast their votes also heavily favored Biden over Sanders. Pollster Richard Czuba estimated that “Biden can bank an almost 150,000-vote lead on Sanders just through absentees.” Michigan voters care most about beating President Trump (39.3%). Health care was a distant second (18.5%), the survey found. 

Sanders is making a big push in Michigan, having appeared at events in five different cities during the final weekend before Tuesday's primary. He went to the county where he suffered his biggest defeat in 2016 by vote total, Wayne County, home of Detroit, and the county where he had his biggest win by vote total, Kent County, where Grand Rapids is located. He also stopped by the liberal haven of Ann Arbor to try to boost support from University of Michigan students at a rally with one of highest-profile supporters, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Young voters were critical to his success in 2016 in Michigan, and they're supporting him in large numbers so far in 2020. On the trail in Michigan, he has been vocal about trade, continuing to hammer home the theme that Biden has championed trade deals like NAFTA that many union voters view with suspicion. Turnout among African American voters will be closely watched. Though Biden's ties to black voters have been proven in the contests so far, turnout in Michigan, particularly in Wayne County, and the level of enthusiasm for him could be a key factor on Tuesday. Suburban women are another key constituency for Biden. Sanders has promised to expand the electorate with new voters, but after a disappointing showing on Super Tuesday, he has admitted some disappointment that the level of turnout is not what he had hoped for or anticipated. Michigan holds what's known as an open closed primary — there is no party registration requirement in the state. Any person can vote in either party's primary, but voters must ask for one party's ballot when they show up at the polls and identify in writing which political party they wish to vote with in the primary. 

 

Due to a 2018 ballot measure, voters can vote absentee without providing a reason. If a person voted absentee for a candidate who has since suspended his or her campaign, that voter can change their vote if they submitted requests in writing by March 7 or appear in person by Monday, March 9. As of March 6, 24,109 people had done this, according to the Michigan Secretary of State's office. Michigan's results could take some time to tabulate. As of March 5, about 90% more absentee ballots were sent compared to five days before the primary in 2016. Nearly 600,000 absentee ballots had been cast as of that day. The secretary of state has pushed Michigan's Legislature to change state law to allow clerks to process or count absentee ballots before Election Day.  Sanders is expected to do well in Idaho and North Dakota, both states with largely white and rural populations, and both states he won in 2016 against Clinton. He is also polling high in Washington state, the last primary to close on Tuesday. But like California, most of Washington votes by mail, so the results may not be known for some time.  

MISSISSIPPI

Mississippi also votes on Tuesday. It's a state that's expected to go big for Biden, given that it has an even larger African American Democratic electorate than South Carolina. In 2016, 71% of the Democratic primary voters in the state were African American. Polls will be open between 8 a.m. and 8 p.m. ET. There is no early voting in the state. Absentee ballots had to be received by March 9 to be counted.  As of March 5, more than 15,000 voters had requested an absentee ballot for the March 10 election, according to the secretary of state's office. As of March 3, only 10,503 ballots have been received by the circuit clerks offices.

MISSOURI

In 2016, Clinton had the support from key political figures and labor unions in the state, but won the state by less than 1,500 votes. Exit polling said Clinton won women with 54% but Sanders won men with 56%. Sanders also won over voters under 44, while Clinton had the backing of voters in the state 45 years old and up. Clinton also won 67% of black voters, compared to Sanders 32%, but Sanders won white voters 54% to 45%.  Missouri is an open primary, so voters can ask for any party's ballot on Election Day. Delegates will be allocated proportionally to the vote, and the threshold for delegates is 15%. Missouri does not have early voting but allows absentee voting. The period to request ballots ended last week, and those ballots must either be received by the time polls close Tuesday or submitted in person by Monday. According to the office of the Missouri secretary of state, 66,374 people had requested absentee ballots as of March 6, but a spokesperson for the office said it would not have a clear sense of how many had been returned until after the election.

IDAHO

In the Idaho primary, candidates need to meet at 15% threshold at the congressional district level or statewide to be considered viable. Independent and unaffiliated voters are allowed to participate in the Democratic primary but cannot participate in the Republican primary. In-person early voting in Idaho ran from February 24 through March 6.  In 2018, Idaho changed from a party-run caucus to a state-run primary. Idaho allows same-day registration for voters at polling locations. Sanders prevailed against Clinton in the state in 2016.

NORTH DAKOTA

North Dakota holds a firehouse caucus, which is essentially a party-run primary. The caucuses are open and anyone can participate. Voting by mail took place January 20 through March 5. In the open caucuses, candidates must meet a threshold of 15% statewide to be considered viable. In 2016, Sanders beat Clinton in the state, winning the state's 18 delegates. Its voters are also largely white and rural.

***Musadiq Bidar, Adam Brewster, Sarah Ewall-Wice & Alex Tin contributed to this report

FROM THE CANDIDATES

JOE BIDEN

By the end of Monday night, Biden in Michigan will have appeared with his trio of recent, high-profile endorsers: Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey and Senator Kamala Harris of California. CBS News campaign reporter Bo Erickson says that with the latest endorsement, Booker's backing on Monday morning, a total of 10 former Democratic presidential candidates have endorsed Biden. Sanders currently has two from former 2020 rivals: New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio and Marianne Williamson.  While Biden hopes to focus in the Rust Belt on his health care policy differences with Sanders, coronavirus has placed both the president and the Democratic candidates under the spotlight. “I think there's no confidence in the president, in anything he says or does,” Biden told MSNBC on Monday. “I wish he'd be quiet, just let the experts speak and acknowledge whatever they suggest to him is what we should be doing.”

BERNIE SANDERS

Sanders dodged a question today about taking personal precautions for his own health in the wake of coronavirus, says CBS News campaign reporter Cara Korte. “Well, I'm surrounded by medical personnel,” Sanders said referring to a panel of health care professional around him, assembled for a campaign event on coronavirus. “Thank you for asking. I am running for President of the United States and that requires a whole lot of work,” he said. Sanders' message on coronavirus is twofold: First, he said the Trump administration's failure to embrace “science” is making the situation worse, including the appointment of Vice President Mike Pence as coronavirus czar. During the panel discussion, Sanders read a quote from the president that suggested people should work through symptoms. “That might be the stupidest advice ever made by a president of the United States,” said Sanders. Secondly, folding in Medicare for All, Sanders said a vaccine should be made free for everyone. He also said a single-payer system would lower the risks on contamination as people could to the doctor without fear of not affording care. Earlier Monday, at a rally in St. Louis, Sanders spoke the virus at length. “And just look at the insanity dealing with this coronavirus, this very serious problem that we're dealing with in America, dealing with all over the world. Think about the insanity of a system where today, somebody wakes up and maybe they think they have the symptoms of coronavirus. Yet they cannot afford to go to a doctor. What does that mean? So they're gonna go to work, and make a serious epidemic even worse,” he said. 

LIFE AFTER 2020

MICHAEL BLOOMBERG

Less than a week after suspending his presidential campaign, billionaire and former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg is spending his own money to combat voter suppression. CBS News campaign reporter Tim Perry confirms Bloomberg gave $2 million to Collective Future for African American voter registration. This is not the first time Bloomberg has spent his own wealth for this particular issue. In December 2019, Bloomberg announced a $5 million donation to Stacey Abrams' new voter protective initiative. This donation expands on Bloomberg's commitment to register 500,000 voters from under-represented groups in key swing states heading into November's general election. “Voter suppression efforts across the country have been a barely disguised effort to keep Black Americans and other Democratic-leaning voters from the polls. I've always believed we need to make it easier for all citizens to register and vote, not harder.” Bloomberg said in a statement. “That's why I strongly support Collective Future in their effort to register 500,000 Black Americans. These new voters could determine the November election – and the future of the country. The stakes couldn't be higher. So while our campaign for the presidency is over, our work to get America back on track is still growing.” A spokesperson for Bloomberg told CBS News the money was transferred last week, but the proposal had been in the works before Bloomberg exited the race after a poor Super Tuesday showing.

CORY BOOKER

Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey announced on Monday he is endorsing Biden for president says CBS News campaign reporter Jack Turman. In an email to supporters, Booker explained his decision to endorse Biden. “Joe is building the kind of campaign that will do more than remove one guy from one office,” the email reads. “He will lead the Democratic Party to victory in races up and down the ballot across the country this November.” In an interview with “CBS This Morning, Booker talked about the importance of unifying the Democratic Party ahead of Tuesday's primary contests. “It is about time we start unifying as a party and begin the work to beat Donald Trump and frankly, save our nation, humanity, address our common cause and our common challenges,” Booker said.

PETE BUTTIGIEG

In his first television interview since suspending his presidential campaign, Pete Buttigieg told NBC News the decision to drop out of the race was his own after being asked if the “establishment” pressured him to end his presidential bid. “Look the kind of people who run for President of the United States are the kind of people who make their own decisions,” Buttigieg said. “It was my decision.” CBS News campaign reporter Jack Turman says Buttigieg also announced that he will be guest hosting “Jimmy Kimmel Live” on Thursday. He said that one of the guests on Thursday is actor Sir Patrick Stewart. 

ISSUES THAT MATTER

TRADE

There's a trade war raging between the top two Democratic presidential contenders, report CBS News campaign reporters Bo Erickson and Cara Korte. Since Super Tuesday left two main candidates standing last week, Sanders has made it a point at campaign stops to list the areas where he and Biden disagree. Trade has taken center stage this week, as the two men fight for delegates in the industrial Midwest. Though neither candidate has released a detailed trade policy, a decisive primary win in Michigan on Tuesday or next week in Ohio could signal how the Democratic Party will approach trade and the nation's economic agenda. Across one of the nation's most iconic manufacturing states, Sanders has been taking swipes at Biden's positions on trade. He slammed then-Senator Biden's support of the 1993 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which eliminated most tariffs between the U.S., Mexico and Canada and the 2000 China Trade Bill, which reinstated permanent and normal trade relations (PNTR) with China. Sanders voted against both measures as a House member and continues to rail against the policies today, a point highlighted by a Sanders ad called “Decimated” that's up in every March 10 and March 17 primary state. “If we are going to defeat Trump in Michigan, in Pennsylvania, and in Wisconsin, it will be very hard for a candidate who voted for these disastrous trade agreements,” Sanders told a Detroit crowd on Friday. This playbook may seem familiar to Democrats, since Sanders waged a similar campaign against Clinton in the 2016 Democratic primaries in Michigan. He skewered her at a Democratic debate held in Flint, Michigan, two days before the primary. “Secretary Clinton supported virtually every one of the disastrous trade agreements written by corporate America. NAFTA, supported by the Secretary, cost us 800,000 jobs nationwide; tens of thousands of jobs in the Midwest. Permanent normal trade relations with China cost us millions of jobs,” he said at the time.

The argument helped Sanders eke out a win over Clinton in the Great Lakes state, in a 1.5-point upset. Later, Mr. Trump, too, consistently criticized Clinton over NAFTA and the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Sanders portrays his congressional votes opposing the trade deals as a matter of character. “I worked with the unions as a member of the House of Representative to defeat NAFTA and to defeat PNTR with China. I can remember like it was yesterday being on a picket line in Montpellier, Vermont in opposition to NAFTA. I knew what it was gonna do. I knew that you cannot ask American workers who are earning living wages to compete against the starvation wages being paid in Mexico,” Sanders said Friday in Detroit. The senator hit the same note during campaign stops in Michigan over weekend. He said in Flint on Saturday that “I heard, during that period in the '90s, I heard all of corporate America say, ‘You gotta vote for these trade agreements.' And all of the media said, ‘You gotta vote for these trade agreements.' I stood with the unions, the working families of this country; I voted against those agreements! Joe Biden voted for those agreements.” The reviews of NAFTA are somewhat mixed, and a new version of the deal, the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, is expected to be implemented soon, after Canada ratifies it. In 2013, the liberal think tank Economic Policy Institute projected that NAFTA caused, “20 years of stagnant wages and the upward redistribution of income, wealth and political power.” At the same time, Foreign Affairs estimates that 14 million American jobs still depend on NAFTA. And a 2016 report from the U.S. International Trade Commission concluded the policy, “had essentially no effect on real wages in the United States of either skilled or unskilled workers.”

Biden has rarely brought up North American trade policy on the stump since the Iowa caucuses, where he would emphasize the impacts of the agricultural trade war with China. Instead, he casts himself as an ally to workers and union members, even though its some workers have fallen victim to the shift of U.S. production to cheaper alternatives in Mexico, as General Motors did in March 2019, eliminating 1,700 hourly jobs in Ohio alone. He stands by his NAFTA vote, arguing that “no, it wasn't” a mistake to vote in favor of the deal, he said last May in Iowa. He has labeled himself a “fair trader,” rather than a “free trader.”  He added, “We should treat other countries in a way they treat us…Just deciding it's all about trade deficit balancing…we need to do more.”

The most recent ripple in the trade debate has been the USMCA agreement, an idea then-candidate Barack Obama pitched in the 2008 primary. Biden has said that in principle he supported the agreement due to the increased labor and environmental protections, issues that he told CBS News in summer 2019 that he believed should have been more thoroughly addressed “from the beginning” of the NAFTA negotiation in the 1990s. Sanders unapologetically voted against USMCA, stating that protections did not go far enough. On this matter Sanders stood alone. His one-time Democratic adversaries criticized him for being too purist in his pursuit. Elizabeth Warren, once Sanders' fellow progressive in the race, promised to support the USMCA and bargain for a better deal if elected.  The distinction was noted by some in the Rust Belt. Frank Hammer, a retired 32-year General Motors employee, participated in a panel discussion on trade with Sanders Friday in Detroit. “You were the singular, sole [candidate] that said — consistent with your past positions — that you were opposed to [USMCA] and I think that speaks volumes for the stance that you have taken on behalf of working class people and especially auto workers,” Hammer said. “And I'm so grateful. Thank you.” 

On the trail Biden has dismissed China's status as an economic powerhouse, pointing out basic challenges Chinese leaders face, like providing enough potable water for their people, and boasting about the U.S. dominance in the future. “The idea that China is going to eat our lunch, it's bizarre,” he said in Iowa in late January, suggesting that rather than viewing China as an existential threat, the U.S. could help China with some of its problems. The U.S. “can compete with China and insist that they follow the rules,” he proposed. Unlike the Social Security ads the Biden campaign is running in Michigan, two Biden advisers tell CBS News after reviewing their internal polling they decided to not engage Sanders on the intra-party trade war.  “At this point I'm not sure voters are looking for a vote-by-vote analysis,” one Biden adviser told CBS News, “They're looking for a nominee.” Others agree that focusing on trade — even in Michigan — may not be as beneficial as Sanders hopes. “I think it's a miscalculation from Sanders,” Justin Wolfers, professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan, told CBS News. Wolfers cited a Gallup poll that shows 67% of self-described Democrats say that NAFTA has been beneficial for the United States. Wolfers said that with the Mr. Trump's election “everything is a little upside down” in terms of trade politics because the GOP incumbent has made a stronger pitch for protectionist voters than any Democratic nominee is likely to make. “Relatively speaking, Democrats are now the pro-trade party,” Wolfers added.

Biden has a strong argument to make in Michigan on manufacturing, though, since he had a leading role in helping to negotiate the Obama administration's 2009 auto bailout of two of the big U.S. automakers, General Motors and Chrysler. “Just like the automobile industry came back, Detroit is going to come back,” Biden said in 2014. “It's not only an important city but it's an iconic city. It symbolizes the manufacturing might of the United States of America.” According to an invitation obtained by CBS News campaign reporter Adam Brewster, Biden is expected to attend a high-dollar fundraiser in Michigan this week, co-hosted by Cynthia and Edsel Ford, the great-grandson of Henry Ford.

STATE-BY-STATE

CALIFORNIA

The California primary is far from over with more than 3 million ballots still left to count, according to estimates published by the California Secretary of State. As of Monday afternoon, CBS News estimates Sanders leads with 33.9%, followed by Biden at 26.6%. Sanders so far is estimated to win 185 delegates while Biden is at 143. CBS News campaign reporter Musadiq Bidar says the millions of ballots that remain unprocessed are because of last minute voters – those who either put their ballots in the mail on Election Day, or who voted in person but decided to change their party registration on the spot. This also includes ballots that were damaged, had typos, or required careful examination from a human election worker. In California, it typically takes counties weeks to process and count all of the ballots. According to the Secretary of State's office, Los Angeles County, the most populous county in the state, has more than 800,000 ballots that still need to be counted. San Diego County has about 350,000 remaining ballots, roughly 200,000 remain unaccounted in Sacramento County while more than 100,000 need to be counted in San Francisco County. State law requires county elections officials to report the final results to the Secretary of State by April 3, 2020. The Secretary of State has until April 10, 2020, to certify the results of the election.

CONGRESSIONAL COVERAGE

IN THE SENATE

Governor Steve Bullock announced Monday morning he will be running for the U.S. Senate, reports CBS News political unit associate producer Eleanor Watson. Democrats have had their eyes on Bullock as a potential candidate to take on Republican incumbent Steve Daines in November. Bullock has won statewide three times and won his second term as governor of Montana in 2016, the same year Donald Trump carried the state by about 20 points. A popular Democrat in a red state would give Democrats a chance at expanding the map for Senate battlegrounds in 2020. Bullock was reluctant to run for Senate at first because he wanted a more executive role, so he launched a presidential bid in May. He told CBS News political correspondent Ed O'Keefe around the time of his announcement that his experience “has always been executive, and I think that's where I could best apply my talents, and that's what I'm looking forward to.”  Bullock suspended his presidential campaign after seven months without gaining traction in the polls. In the interview in May, Bullock also told O'Keefe, “I know that we're going to have good candidates in Montana to take on Senator Daines.” However, no strong candidate emerged in the months leading up to Monday's filing deadline. The deadline to submit candidacies to the Secretary of State's office is Monday evening. Bullock plans to file with his wife and children by his side at the secretary's office in Helena.